10 Genius Predictions for 2024

Calling In the Predictions Genius To Reveal Our Future

Dec 14, 2023

10 Genius Predictions For 2024

The mysterious Predictions Genius has some game. A year ago this month P.G. saw into the future that Cruise, the AV pioneer, would suffer an ignominious setback in 2023. Hmm…

Now it is time to learn what is in store for 2024:

Ford Will Exit The China Market. Twenty years after setting up its first joint venture in China, Ford will retreat from the PRC. Sales have been sliding dramatically since 2016. Market share has dwindled to 1%. There’s red ink everywhere. Sadly, the only thing going well for Ford in China is exports. In desperation, Ford repurposed its idle JV plants to ship more than 100,000 vehicles overseas from China, giving half the profits to its Chinese partner. (Whoever made THAT decision should be hung, drawn and quartered).
China Plays Mexican Backdoor. BYD, Chery and Great Wall will begin building plants in Mexico in 2024. Both want to access to the US market and stiff American tariffs will drive them to do this end-around via Mexico. China is already the number one supplier of vehicles to the Mexican market. Now they will start flooding their best models across the border faster than illegal immigrants. The US better watch its southern flank.
Mary Barra Will Step Down. When Mary Barra became CEO in January 2014, the GM share price stood at 38.60. Ten years later, it’s at 33. In recent months, Cruise was wracked by a major safety scandal. EV production fell way behind schedule. And efforts to build batteries met production hell. Sales in China are down more than 60% from their peak in 2017. The only thing stalling the move beyond Mary is that GM has no clear and present candidate to take her place. Reuss? Excellent product guy. Jacobson? Smart, but does not like living in Detroit. Will the Board dare to bring in someone from the outside?
War in Asia Starts in the Philippines. People are understandably wary about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But China almost always prefers an indirect approach. The PRC Navy has been growing ever more aggressive with its tactics in the South China Sea, pushing the Philippines to the brink. Something will snap resulting in some military confrontation between China and the US-backed Philippines.
SAIC Will Buy The Buick Brand. By some measures, Buick is already a Chinese company. China accounts for 80% of Buick’s global sales. And more than one-third of Buicks sold in the US are built in China. So, SAIC will acquire the brand outright, calling it a merger of old friends. SAIC is enjoying tremendous success with the MG brand, which it acquired via Nanjing Motors more than 10 years ago.
Trump Destroys IRA Legislation for EVs. One of his first acts as president-elect will be to call for the dismantling of IRA props for the EV and battery supply chain industry. He will then tell Americans that if they want electrics, they need to buy them China – and pay a hefty 50% tariff to get them into the country.
EU Quotas on Chinese Imports. Europe already knows the bitter feeling of watching its solar power industry get overrun by cheap Chinese imports. They EU Commission will not let the same thing happen in cars. Look for Europe to both lift tariffs and involve quotas on car imports from China. My predicted market share tolerance ceiling is 7%.
Elon Monk. The world’s wealthiest individual will say enough with this world – and even with Mars – and decides to become a reclusive Buddhist monk in India. When you think about it, a sejour of deep meditation is the next logical step. Who dares to bet against this outcome?
Chinese EV Fires / Global Stage. By the end of 2024, China will have shipped more than 10 million vehicles to 120 markets worldwide in the span of 24 months. Many of them will be EVs. There are bound to be battery fires in several countries, an unwelcome blemish on China’s image for quality. The black eye, however, will be temporary as Chinese companies offer to replace burned cars free of charge.
LG Chem or Panasonic Surprise LFP. China will no longer have a total monopoly on LFP batteries by the end of 2024. A Korean or Japanese battery maker will reveal the world-class LFP battery that Western automakers will start sourcing in 2025.
Bonus: Secretary Raimondo Will Run For President. Old Joe is simply too old. Gina has spunk, smarts and takes action. Look for her to become the Democratic nominee for 2024.

What is your wild prediction for 2024? Take your best shot and send it to me at michael@dunneinsights.com

AI-generated Image of the Special Assistant to the Predictions Genius

Future Cars & Markets

Electrics

Fisker Ocean: Pretty design. Less pretty numbers.

Fisker Down Rounds. Fisker’s production plans for 2023 keep getting skinnier. A year ago the company announced plans to produce 40-50,000 cars in 2023. This week the company revised the number down to just 10,000. Link

Zeekr Goes Dutch. Geely’s performance/luxury EV brand, slotted alongside the Polestar and the Volvo, goes on sale this week in the Netherlands. Earlier this year, Zeekr was valued at $13 billion. The company is looking towards an IPO in 2024. Link

China’s EV Surge in Thailand. For 30 years, Thailand has been an impregnable Japanese car brand fortress. Americans, Koreans and European automakers threw billions of dollars at the Kingdom but could not break Japan’s ironclad grip. Today, however, Chinese EV makers are achieving stunning success. Floor sales numbers from the Thai Expo this week courtesy of Mark Leonard in Bangkok. Link

Thai Title: “Toyota is No. 1 but the Chinese are Coming on Strong.”

Batteries / Supply Chains

Our Next Energy. Veteran Paul Humphries was named CEO of Our Next Energy this week. Founder Mujeeb Ijaz moves to Vice Chairman and CTO. Earlier this year, the company was recently valued at $1.2 billion. Link

Sila & Panasonic. Sila won an important supply agreement with Panasonic this week. Sila specializes in Silicon powder chemistries that increase energy density and deliver longer range. Sila had earlier inked a deal to supply future electric G-Class SUVs by Mercedes. Link

Advanced Technologies

WeRide/Singapore. China’s AV makers have global ambitions. WeRide has just obtained licenses to test its vehicles in Singapore, the so-called Geneva of Asia. Link

WeRide in Chinese is *WenYuan*: “Cultured and Far”

New Numbers / Milestones

EV Score: China 12 - America 1. Americans bought 1 million EVs in the first 49 weeks of the year, an all-time record. Hurray. But hold it. Across the Pacific, Chinese consumers bought more than 1 million vehicles in the single month of November.

F-150 Lightning Loses Thunder. At the end of 2022, Ford ramped up capacity to 150,000. Alas, Ford delivered only 21,000 Lightnings through November this year. For 2024, production plans have been cut in half. Big, heavy vehicles traveling at high speed are not the battery’s friend. Link

China EV Report Card in Europe. Chinese brands account for just under 10% of the Europe/UK EV market in 2023. As Schmidt Auto Research reports, many sales are going into fleets (MG and Polestar in the UK) or rental agencies (BYD into Sixt). This comes at a time when demand for EVs in Europe is slowing dramatically. Link