Battery Wars: China vs. Everybody

LGES, Tesla, Waymo, Zeekr, VinFast, Volvo, Toyota, Indonesia

Nov 21, 2022

The Big 5 This Week

1. China’s LFP vs. NCM. China dominates LFP batteries and supply chains. Elon Musk says that LFP batteries will soon outnumber NCM batteries in Teslas by a 2-1 ratio. But moving to LFP comes with its own set of complexities. Link

2. Waymo-Zeekr AV Prototype. Sourcing vehicles from a Chinese EV maker lets Waymo focus on building the brains of autonomous vehicles. American regulators, however, will have a hard time endorsing vehicles manufactured in China. Link

3. VinFast-Autonomy-USA. VinFast will supply 2,500 vehicles to Autonomy, a US car subscription service company led by Scott Painter. Autonomy’s homepage headline: “Autonomy is the cheapest, fastest easiest way to get a Tesla.” VinFast’s four new EV offerings are coming soon. Link

4. Indonesia Goes Big On EVs. Expect ZigZags. The world’s 4th most populous nation is funneling billions of dollars into nickel mines, batteries and electric vehicles. LG, Wuling, CATL and Hyundai are leading the charge. Expect the more tortoise, less hare. As an Indonesian Minister once said to me: “If we can make things more complicated, why not?” Link

5. Volvo Chief Sees EV Parity in 2025. Volvo CEO Jim Rowan believes that EVs and ICE-powered vehicles will be at parity by 2025. This forecast seems hard to square with current realities. Soaring mineral costs are making electric cars more expensive every week. The average cost of an EV in America now stands at $66,000. Link

The Zeekr all-electric AV prototype custom developed for Waymo

Quote of the Week: The US will need about 1.5 million public fast-chargers to hit the EV sales goals of 2030…and investment of $35-40 billion. - Philip Kampshoff, McKinsey Center for Future Mobility. Link

What To Read: Smart Brevity, a useful book recommended by the always concise writer, John Voelcker. “I have only made this letter longer because I have not had the time to make it shorter.” - Blaise Pascal, French mathematician, 1623-1662.

Future EVs, Batteries, Charging

Electrics

Attractive & Fast: The New Prius: Toyota plans to make making hybrids until at least 2050. “Some people think there is only one answer to carbon neutrality. We think there are many,” says Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota Chairman. Link

BYD Floods The Brand Zone. BYD plans to develop five distinct brands: Dynasty, Ocean, Denza, Yangwang and a brand to be named later. A Chinese contradiction: No consumer on earth is willing to pay more for a quality brand name. And yet producers like Geely and BYD flood the zone with multiple brands as if to say: More is more. Link

Batteries

Gotion & VinFast: China’s Gotion and VinFast will invest $275 million to manufacture cells in Vietnam. Call it a marriage of convenience. Link

SVOLT IPO. SVOLT aims to raise $2.1 billion when the battery maker lists on the STAR market, China’s Nasdaq. Link

Charging

Reliability Index. It is quality, not quantity that matters most when you pull into a station low on battery juice. And this is precisely where Tesla buries the competition. Link

Profitability. Making a profit from charging stations is hard. More EVs on the road should change the equation. How will stations differentiate themselves in the future? Think services beyond the plug. Link

New Numbers / Milestones

$50 Billion > F-150. GM’s CFO says the company will make $50 billion in EV revenues in 2025. That is more than Ford now makes on its F-150 series. Link

Michigan football stands 11-0 after barely squeaking past Illinois. Five days until the showdown in Columbus. The Buckeyes are 9 point favorites. The bookies like them, at least. Link