China EV Blast Off
BYD, Envision, Apple, BMW, VinFast, Rivian, Lordstown, TSMC
The Big 5 This Week
1. China The EV Dominator. China will produce an astounding 6.8 million EVs in 2022 – almost 7 of every 10 electric vehicles built on the planet this year. China has the capacity, batteries and supply chains to overwhelm global markets with affordable electric vehicles. Link
2. VinFast Into America. Don’t blink or you might miss the action. First deliveries to customers this week in California. A new plant in North Carolina. And plans for a $2 billion IPO on Nasdaq. Link
3. BYD’s Global Blitz. BYD launched the Atto 3 (see pic below) into the Malaysian market this week. This was BYD’s latest in a succession of new market launches, including into Thailand, India, Vietnam, Germany, Sweden, Denmark. Mexico, Morocco and Brazil. Link
4. China Envision & BMW. Japanese-founded, Chinese-acquired Envision AESC will build its third battery plant in America, this one to supply BMW. “Please don’t call it a Chinese company,” whisper the PR people at Envision. Link
5. Apple Car / A Conversation In early 2017 I met up with a vineyards-in-Italy-owning partner at Sequoia and asked: “What do you think about Apple’s plans for a car? He shook his head and fired a question back at me: “What is Apple going to do better than Tesla?” Almost 6 years later, the folks at Apple seem to be wondering the same thing. Link
No. 1 Quote of the Week. “We may be witnessing the sharpest pivot from under-supply to over-supply of vehicles in a generation.” Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley. If you’re in the market for a new vehicle, wait until April.
No. 2 Quote of the Week. “Globalization is almost dead.” Morris Chang, Chairman, TSMC, the world’s largest chip manufacturer at a ground-breaking ceremony last week in Arizona. Link
Number of the Week: 2.8 Million. China will export 2.8 million vehicles in 2022. The PRC is now the world’s No. 1 car exporter after Japan. Link
Future EVs, Batteries, Charging
Electrics
Rivian Bleed / Mercedes Pause. Rivian lost $7.5 billion in the past 12 months. “They’re going to lose money as far as you can see,” says Steve Weiss at Short Hills Capital Partners. One year ago, the company was valued at more than $100 billion. Today the number is $25 billion. Link
Lordstown Starts Deliveries. Ohio-based Lordstown delivered the first batch of Endurance work trucks to customers this month. Foxconn does the manufacturing. Link
Batteries
Europe Catch Up. Europe finds itself in third place behind China and the US in the race for global battery leadership. “Seven Gigafactories will be active by the end of this year,” says Henry Sanderson at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Link
CATL / Honda. CATL has agreed to supply Honda with enough batteries to power 1 million vehicles. For Japanese automakers, it looks like a case of “If you can’t beat ‘em, buy from them.” Link
BYD Hunts US Plant. BYD is everywhere except in the United States. That may soon change. China’s leading EV maker is exploring options to invest in a battery plant in America. Link
Charging
Rivian’s Private Network. Rivian is building a private network of chargers for its most intrepid customers. “The power electronics module is something we are going to be deploying at scale,” says RJ Scaringe, CEO. Link
VW Builds EU’s Largest Network. Volkswagen has quietly built Europe’s No. 1 charging network with 400,000 charging points in 27 countries. VW’s charging division, founded in 2018, is called Elli. Link
New Numbers / Milestones
Michigan is an 8.5 point favorite over TCU in the CFP semi-final on New Year’s Eve. I’m expecting a close game. What do you think? Link
EV Parity. “EVs in nearly every European country are at cost parity on total cost of ownership basis with gasoline or petrol cars.” says an expansive new report reviewed by the FT. H/T Peter Campbell. Link
Too many variables in the equation – wildly fluctuating mineral prices and charging rates – make me pause before accepting the conclusion.
$40,000,000,000. TSMC is investing $40 billion into Arizona to supply chips to major American customers including Apple. Link
Should I Buy The F-150 Lighting or the ICE Version?
“Get her to test drive the Lightning and she will soon be rid of any doubts about electric vehicles.”
Guest: Darren Palmer, VP, Electric Vehicles, Ford
The Driving With Dunne Podcast
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