Rivian As No. 1, Tesla To Mexico

Britishvolt, Chip War, Tesla, BYD, German EV Winter, Zerova, Elon-China Pot

Feb 28, 2023

The Big 5 This Week

1. Rivian On Top. Owners of the R1T all-electric pickup truck are the most satisfied customers in the premium electric segment, according to JD Power. One California customer had this to say after his first 6 months: “I love it in so many ways – very quick, nice interior – but I wish they were a little bit further along on the software side.” Link

2. Tesla to Mexico. We are now 99% certain that Tesla will build a large new plant in Northern Mexico. The president of Mexico says so. Tesla is expected to give more details at Investor Day, tomorrow. A Tesla move into Mexico is both a safety valve for potential China havoc and vote of confidence in the future of the North American battery industry. Link

3. American Chip War. Companies securing grants and loans from the US government will be prevented from investing in new capacity in countries of concern (read: China) for the next ten years. “The regulations amount to a full-scale technological, economic Cold War.” Link

4. BYD Dominance. BYD accounted for 37% of all EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) sold in China through the first two months of 2023. Tesla (BEVs only) is a distant second. (Reminder: Average price of BYD products is half of Tesla’s). Link

5. European EV Winter? EV sales in Germany fell 13% YoY in January, 2023. EV penetration rates dropped to 11% after racing up to 33% in December. “The market woke up with a painful hangover following some excessive [subsidy-base] partying at the end of 2022,” says Matthias Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research.

For 2023, Schmidt expects European EV and PHEV sales to end flat with last year at about 2.45 million vehicles. Link

Forst Rivian R1T customers are delighted. Now the climb starts.

Listen Up

"Elon Musk, are you smashing the pot of China? ” – Global Times, China State News Agency, after Musk speculated on a theory about the China-lab leak theory and Covid19. “Breaking the pot in China” = “biting the had that feeds you.” China accounted for 40% of Tesla’s revenue in 2022. But,as Elon knows, Chin is a much, much smaller share of global profits.

Future EVs, Batteries, Charging

EVs

Fisker’s European Debut. Homologation and regulatory approvals for the Fisker Ocean should be complete by the end of March. The vehicle will be built by Magna in Graz, Austria. Link

F-150 Lightning Battery Fire. Ford is suspending production of the Lightning for another week. As global battery genius Kurt Kelty, former Tesla battery chief, told me a year ago in a Driving With Dunne podcast: Battery safety is hard. Link

Geely Galaxy. Geely will introduce 7 new EVs and PHEVs under the Galaxy brand over the next two years. How many brands in the Geely portfolio can you name? There’s Volvo, Polestar, Geely, Lynk & Co, Lotus, Geometry, ZEEKR… Link

Geely adds Galaxy to a bulging portfolio of brands.

Batteries

First Sodium-Ion Battery. SOL, owned by Volkswagen China, introduces the first car powered by sodium-ion batteries. Link

Sodium-ion: Lower cost but less energy density.

Charging

US Charging Network Cost/Benefit. Taiwan’s Zerova Technologies charging company says that the US can build its own charging expertise to compete with China’s. But it will not come cheap or easy. Link

New Ideas / Milestones

Britishvolt Rescue. Australia’s Recharge Industries purchased bankrupt Britishvolt this week. The UK government is working hard to revive its auto industry, which hit its lowest level of production in 35 years. Link

Li Auto - Dark Horse Hits Stride. The maker of premium PHEV vehicles expects to surpass both NIO and Xpeng this year. Li Auto products retail for between $43,000 and $72,000. Link