The New China Price

CATL, Tesla V4, Toyota-BYD, Arrival, Porsche, Nvidia, VW, Korean Batteries

Mar 21, 2023

The Big 5 This Week

1. China Price 2.0. Historians will look back on 2023 as the year in which China unleashed its electric vehicle mega-pricing power. PRC automakers are slashing stickers at home amidst weak demand. To fill the plants, look for an aggressive ramp up of EV exports to markets worldwide. Europe better batten down the hatches. Link

2. Tesla – Remote Butts In Seats. It’s 7am on a Sunday morning and you’re suddenly taken by an urge to test drive a Tesla. No problem. Head over to the test drive hub where access to a Tesla is granted remotely. Link

3. Japan’s EV Hole in China. Japanese automakers accounted for less than 2% of China’s 6 million strong EV market in 2022. Toyota-Honda-Nissan might have come to the conclusion that it’s impossible to win the EV game in China so why start investing now. And does anyone know China better than Japan? I think not. Link

4. CATL: Joy & Worry. One of the best Chinese sayings, especially popular in outlying provinces like Sichuan or Guangzhou, goes like this: “The mountains are tall and the emperor is far away.” Translation: Not being noticed by the far away guy in charge is a good thing. Earlier this month, however, the Boss of Bosses Xi Jinping said he was “both happy and worried” about CATL. This is making people at CATL more worried than happy. How to say “the central audit teams are coming soon” in Chinese? Link

5. VW ID. 2all: VW returns to its roots as a maker of vehicles for the masses. The ID. 2all – scheduled for European showrooms by 2026 – will start at $26,000. Link

Listen Up

NIO In America. Not a week passes without someone asking me when the first Chinese automaker will step into the US market. Volvo and Polestar are here already, of course. Others are much less visible but they are running feasibility studies, consumer clinics and homologation. NIO may be the next to put cars on the street. This week, the company applied for rights to lobby in the United States. “We envision becoming an active player in the United States by 2025,” says founder William Li. Link

NIO is expanding its offices in San Jose.

Future EVs, Batteries, Charging

EVs

Worst Range EVs. Stunning to see so many European premium brands with less than 250 miles real-world range: Mercedes, Porsche, BMW even Volvo. Link

Toyota-BYD bZ3. When you can’t beat them, find a way to get along with them? Toyota is powering its BZ3 electric sedan with a blade battery from BYD. The bZ3 will start at a head-turning $27,000. Link

Batteries

Korea’s Battery Billions. Korea’s steel-making capital, Pohang, is making a massive pivot to batteries. “Korea might have a company like TSMC [Taiwan’s chip powerhouse] that makes all kinds of batteries because automakers can no longer use Chinese cells.” Link

Lithium 40% Dive Means What?. Battery grade lithium carbonate prices have dropped by more than 40% since their peak in November, 2022. Some smaller lithium mining companies are going bankrupt. Widely-respected veteran Joe Lowry, aka Mr. Lithium, says this is China-style short-term volatility. 2023 contracts are still higher than 2022. “Structural shortages still exist.” Link

Charging

Tesla Supercharging - V4. If you like fast-charging, you will love to learn that the Tesla V4 Supercharger will be twice as fast as its predecessor. You might need to fly to Amsterdam to be a first mover. Link

V4 looks similar but it’s twice as fast.

New Ideas / Milestones

Nvidia - AI for AVs Champion. Nvidia has quietly emerged as the superpower among companying building chips for AI applications, including autonomous vehicles. I once asked founder Jensen Huang to describe China is a few words, given his deep experience there. “Well, Huang said, “it’s a closed market.” Those few words may prove to be prophetic. Link

Russian Billionaire’s British EV Startup - Arrival: The big new idea it to set up multiple micro factories. Or, seemingly, the opposite of Elon’s extreme scaling. Will it work? Link

Your Weekly Modicum of Wisdom

“If anyone tells you that a certain person speaks ill of you, do not make excuses about what was said, but answer: He was ignorant of my other faults, else he would not have mentioned these alone.” – Epictetus 123 AD.