That did not work for China, did it? Western Markets are still quite safe, as Chinese manufacturers have difficulties to adapt to the market conditions. So they better use the time and innovate the heck out of EVs.
What the article does not highlight is that China already is leading in the machines that make cells for batteries. By introd…
That did not work for China, did it? Western Markets are still quite safe, as Chinese manufacturers have difficulties to adapt to the market conditions. So they better use the time and innovate the heck out of EVs.
What the article does not highlight is that China already is leading in the machines that make cells for batteries. By introducing tariffs Europe and the US will just delay a downfall - better to fight it with innovation.
China tried to succeed on the combustion engine side. They were hopeful, introduced a lot of measures, and they did not succeed. Only when they jumped on new technologies did they start to succeed.
They will simply delay the inevitable, as the Chinese crush the European makers not just in China but also Asia, MENA and Latin America before their factories in Hungary, Turkey, Belgium (Geely Volvo) and elsewhere in the EU kick into gear. And yes CATL, BYD and other Chinese battery manufacturers have about 70% of the global battery market. The Koreans and Panasonic are also rans, no European battery makers of any size.
Lol, huge oversimplification especially with "Asia, MENA and Latin America"
Those are wildly different markets with its own structure, in most asian countries european automakers always had a smaller market share and those countries are dominated by japanese brands (Thailand, Indonesia) so "getting crushed" is hyperbolic nonsense since they have normally a fairly small business there to begin with. in South America VW sold 15% more so far in 2024 in than in 2023 but surely "got crushed".
You seem to confuse present and future tenses, as VW South America 2024 sales are the present and I am talking about the future. VW sales in China were still growing until quite recently, but are now falling at about 20% y-o-y in September 2024. Same with both Mercedes and BMW. Things can change quite rapidly.
With respect to A-P outside China, where VW sales were 360,000, the Chinese car makers are making rapid progress across the board, and are also rapidly increasing their presence in Brazil and Mexico where VW makes more than 3/4s of its South American sales of over half a million.
I did a quarterly global car market update recently on my site, dealing with many of the country level details. Things will change very abruptly in the next 2-3 years globally , as they have in China in the past 2-3 years.
Car sales in China have been falling or getting back/being stagnant to the 2018 levels for years now. Car sales in general were falling after corona 2020, so the growing years are now almost 5 years ago. And that China focuses on domestic brands was talked about for even longer - the "Made in China 2025" was published 2015. That is in itself is very different to any other country and even more to LatAm countries.
Chinese are new competitors like japanese or koreans were when they joined the global market. As Brazil has very high tariffs the focus will be on domestic production which makes it harder to capture market share since they need capex first. Maybe I associated "getting crushed" with something different but being another competitor in a field with needed local production and where european, asian and american car companies are already competing against each other for decades sounds way more complex.
And Brazil has shown that they will rise the tariffs for EVs too and other subventions for local production. So cost advantages which some may have in China will not be able to be "copied" easily if local production in Brazil is required, which levels the playing field. They will gain market share, that's very likely, depending on the general market size of sales in Brazil the current automakers will be more or less heavily impacted. But crushed? To what extent? To compare that with china with its own different market dynamics to other overseas countries is IMO not possible.
Other asian regions will be more of a problem to japanese manufacturers and hyundai/kia since I don't know any market with bigger market shares of european companies there, so getting crushed is fully overblown.
All of that obviously with difficult estimates regarding the EV sales which can easily be influenced by state subventions and other incentives.
Chinese domestic EV sales are growing at over 35% per year, as EVs take over the market (now over 50% share) so they have at least a couple of years of very strong growth left in the domestic market. The German (and Japanese) manufacturers will lose their very large sales in China as EVs takeover.
The Brazilian import tax on EVs only resumed in January and is incrementally increasing to reach 35% in July 2026 (18% right now). In the interim, the Chinese car manufacturers are importing large numbers of EVs while also building domestic factories (BYDs factory will start production later this year). Brazil has the MOVER program that incentives for EVs to drive their adoption - and VW is at a severe disadvantage wrt EVs in Brazil. Chery, Geely, Changan, BYD, GWM etc. already have factories in Brazil.
Go do some actual research to get your facts straight. Or just wait for my next quarterly update and learn something.
That did not work for China, did it? Western Markets are still quite safe, as Chinese manufacturers have difficulties to adapt to the market conditions. So they better use the time and innovate the heck out of EVs.
What the article does not highlight is that China already is leading in the machines that make cells for batteries. By introducing tariffs Europe and the US will just delay a downfall - better to fight it with innovation.
China tried to succeed on the combustion engine side. They were hopeful, introduced a lot of measures, and they did not succeed. Only when they jumped on new technologies did they start to succeed.
They will simply delay the inevitable, as the Chinese crush the European makers not just in China but also Asia, MENA and Latin America before their factories in Hungary, Turkey, Belgium (Geely Volvo) and elsewhere in the EU kick into gear. And yes CATL, BYD and other Chinese battery manufacturers have about 70% of the global battery market. The Koreans and Panasonic are also rans, no European battery makers of any size.
Lol, huge oversimplification especially with "Asia, MENA and Latin America"
Those are wildly different markets with its own structure, in most asian countries european automakers always had a smaller market share and those countries are dominated by japanese brands (Thailand, Indonesia) so "getting crushed" is hyperbolic nonsense since they have normally a fairly small business there to begin with. in South America VW sold 15% more so far in 2024 in than in 2023 but surely "got crushed".
You seem to confuse present and future tenses, as VW South America 2024 sales are the present and I am talking about the future. VW sales in China were still growing until quite recently, but are now falling at about 20% y-o-y in September 2024. Same with both Mercedes and BMW. Things can change quite rapidly.
With respect to A-P outside China, where VW sales were 360,000, the Chinese car makers are making rapid progress across the board, and are also rapidly increasing their presence in Brazil and Mexico where VW makes more than 3/4s of its South American sales of over half a million.
I did a quarterly global car market update recently on my site, dealing with many of the country level details. Things will change very abruptly in the next 2-3 years globally , as they have in China in the past 2-3 years.
Car sales in China have been falling or getting back/being stagnant to the 2018 levels for years now. Car sales in general were falling after corona 2020, so the growing years are now almost 5 years ago. And that China focuses on domestic brands was talked about for even longer - the "Made in China 2025" was published 2015. That is in itself is very different to any other country and even more to LatAm countries.
Chinese are new competitors like japanese or koreans were when they joined the global market. As Brazil has very high tariffs the focus will be on domestic production which makes it harder to capture market share since they need capex first. Maybe I associated "getting crushed" with something different but being another competitor in a field with needed local production and where european, asian and american car companies are already competing against each other for decades sounds way more complex.
And Brazil has shown that they will rise the tariffs for EVs too and other subventions for local production. So cost advantages which some may have in China will not be able to be "copied" easily if local production in Brazil is required, which levels the playing field. They will gain market share, that's very likely, depending on the general market size of sales in Brazil the current automakers will be more or less heavily impacted. But crushed? To what extent? To compare that with china with its own different market dynamics to other overseas countries is IMO not possible.
Other asian regions will be more of a problem to japanese manufacturers and hyundai/kia since I don't know any market with bigger market shares of european companies there, so getting crushed is fully overblown.
All of that obviously with difficult estimates regarding the EV sales which can easily be influenced by state subventions and other incentives.
Chinese domestic EV sales are growing at over 35% per year, as EVs take over the market (now over 50% share) so they have at least a couple of years of very strong growth left in the domestic market. The German (and Japanese) manufacturers will lose their very large sales in China as EVs takeover.
The Brazilian import tax on EVs only resumed in January and is incrementally increasing to reach 35% in July 2026 (18% right now). In the interim, the Chinese car manufacturers are importing large numbers of EVs while also building domestic factories (BYDs factory will start production later this year). Brazil has the MOVER program that incentives for EVs to drive their adoption - and VW is at a severe disadvantage wrt EVs in Brazil. Chery, Geely, Changan, BYD, GWM etc. already have factories in Brazil.
Go do some actual research to get your facts straight. Or just wait for my next quarterly update and learn something.