Thanks, Michael. I did not appreciate the dealership role in undermining EVs but it seems logical. Can you suggest any studies showing this impact?
I anxiously await how successful the separation of batteries from cars (swapping) impacts adoption with the lower entry price for EVs and consumer willingness to accept the battery as an independent purchase decision. Not just for autos, but for maritime and trucking consumers. The Nio model will transform this as much as improved battery chemistry.
And while we may reach a technological equivalence with China in the arena, industrial scale is another issue altogether. Tough to innovate and compete when you are delivering 500,000 units and they are delivering 5M.
Excellent article. I just disagree about the massive advantage of the Chinese carmakers being vertical integration. There is some of that, but I think what is driving the innovation and driving down costs is the modular nature of the Chinese carmaking supply chain. Ford's River Rouge plant showed how vertical integration stifles innovation. That's not what's happening in China.
Michael thank you for this well written article. You recently changed your metaphor from a new “Manhattan Project” to “Sputnik 2.” Because of your articles and podcasts I have been studying more About the history of the Chinese people. They are incredible. I have come to respect the CCP. YES IT IS NOT A DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTION but they have aligned 1.4 billion people to go in one direction….forward! I am amazed at what they have done to move from an agrarian society, to a society that has created a thriving middle class. They are not perfect. They have their flaws. But I am transfixed when(on YouTube) I seethe infrastructure marvels that they have created, not just in China but globally.
The Wolf Amendment was created in 2011, to restrict the Chinese from participation in NASA and the office of Science and Technology. One has to marvel ant what are now doing on their own in aerospace and space exploration. And, they have invited other nations to participate.
I believe the US auto industry is in serious “existential” trouble just as Jim Farley has stated. Jim Farley’s favorite car right now is the Xiomi SU7. sedan.he calls it “fantastic” and an “industrial juggernaut!”Even though Chinese vehicles are prohibited in the USA…I agree with your metaphor of how Mao united China…he won the countryside first. In the same fashion China is exporting its cars to every continent on the planet…Mexico and now Canada included.
Whether it is SPUTNIK OR MANHATTAN, the US auto industry, with US GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE,has some serious work ahead of it…to keep the industry alive!
How can you neglect to mention that Detroit's failure is being amplified and compounded and sealed by our evil and brain-dead President who is perversely and gleefully taking a wrecking ball to American prospects to electrify our car industry?
Battery/charging/swapping will mature by 2027 for autos/light truck and will not constrain demand. I watch maritime/large truck/military migration. I would love your thoughts on this.
For example, for maritime shipping - aside from river and small craft traffic already in operation, I wonder if South China sea islands will become recharging stations to support maritime electric shipping throughout SE Asia (Perhaps supported by on-island small nuclear reactors, like the Hainan Linglong One).
As well, your thoughts on circular economy/recycling support through battery swapping would be appreciated. I suspect 15th 5-year-plan provincial targets will call out targets in this area.
Incumbent interests are notoriously hard to dislodge without sufficient momentum, because they sclerotize.
Production lines and supply chains need to be completely revamped.
The 7 sisters' children will not easily release the teats of the public sector and the markets. They will obstruct, both overtly and covertly. Besides, their subsidies have not been openly exposed (with real numbers) and discussed, for reasons unknown to me.
Dealerships are not going away easily. They are politically very powerful at the local level.
And finally, there is still the evolving energy density situation aside from the infrastructure situation. The technology continues to mature. Even so, there will be applications where hydrocarbons will be hard to replace, like aviation and military applications. Hydrogen is a mirage because it is notoriously difficult to store and transport economically and safely.
Thanks, Michael. I did not appreciate the dealership role in undermining EVs but it seems logical. Can you suggest any studies showing this impact?
I anxiously await how successful the separation of batteries from cars (swapping) impacts adoption with the lower entry price for EVs and consumer willingness to accept the battery as an independent purchase decision. Not just for autos, but for maritime and trucking consumers. The Nio model will transform this as much as improved battery chemistry.
And while we may reach a technological equivalence with China in the arena, industrial scale is another issue altogether. Tough to innovate and compete when you are delivering 500,000 units and they are delivering 5M.
Your insights are so valuable. Thanks!
Excellent article. I just disagree about the massive advantage of the Chinese carmakers being vertical integration. There is some of that, but I think what is driving the innovation and driving down costs is the modular nature of the Chinese carmaking supply chain. Ford's River Rouge plant showed how vertical integration stifles innovation. That's not what's happening in China.
Michael thank you for this well written article. You recently changed your metaphor from a new “Manhattan Project” to “Sputnik 2.” Because of your articles and podcasts I have been studying more About the history of the Chinese people. They are incredible. I have come to respect the CCP. YES IT IS NOT A DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTION but they have aligned 1.4 billion people to go in one direction….forward! I am amazed at what they have done to move from an agrarian society, to a society that has created a thriving middle class. They are not perfect. They have their flaws. But I am transfixed when(on YouTube) I seethe infrastructure marvels that they have created, not just in China but globally.
The Wolf Amendment was created in 2011, to restrict the Chinese from participation in NASA and the office of Science and Technology. One has to marvel ant what are now doing on their own in aerospace and space exploration. And, they have invited other nations to participate.
I believe the US auto industry is in serious “existential” trouble just as Jim Farley has stated. Jim Farley’s favorite car right now is the Xiomi SU7. sedan.he calls it “fantastic” and an “industrial juggernaut!”Even though Chinese vehicles are prohibited in the USA…I agree with your metaphor of how Mao united China…he won the countryside first. In the same fashion China is exporting its cars to every continent on the planet…Mexico and now Canada included.
Whether it is SPUTNIK OR MANHATTAN, the US auto industry, with US GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE,has some serious work ahead of it…to keep the industry alive!
How can you neglect to mention that Detroit's failure is being amplified and compounded and sealed by our evil and brain-dead President who is perversely and gleefully taking a wrecking ball to American prospects to electrify our car industry?
Battery/charging/swapping will mature by 2027 for autos/light truck and will not constrain demand. I watch maritime/large truck/military migration. I would love your thoughts on this.
For example, for maritime shipping - aside from river and small craft traffic already in operation, I wonder if South China sea islands will become recharging stations to support maritime electric shipping throughout SE Asia (Perhaps supported by on-island small nuclear reactors, like the Hainan Linglong One).
As well, your thoughts on circular economy/recycling support through battery swapping would be appreciated. I suspect 15th 5-year-plan provincial targets will call out targets in this area.
Again thanks, Michael.
To add to this contribution:
Incumbent interests are notoriously hard to dislodge without sufficient momentum, because they sclerotize.
Production lines and supply chains need to be completely revamped.
The 7 sisters' children will not easily release the teats of the public sector and the markets. They will obstruct, both overtly and covertly. Besides, their subsidies have not been openly exposed (with real numbers) and discussed, for reasons unknown to me.
Dealerships are not going away easily. They are politically very powerful at the local level.
And finally, there is still the evolving energy density situation aside from the infrastructure situation. The technology continues to mature. Even so, there will be applications where hydrocarbons will be hard to replace, like aviation and military applications. Hydrogen is a mirage because it is notoriously difficult to store and transport economically and safely.