Good article. Paints a comprehensive and fact based picture of the auto industry’s shifting center of gravity to China in honest terms, which few in the West dare to publicly voice.
During the ICE age, the shift to Japanese and Korean auto manufacturers was tectonic but gradual over several decades. But the disruptive shift this time will be much much faster, due to the combination of Electric Mobility AND AI. Most ppl also don’t understand or believe AI will descend like a storm before it brings forth a rainbow of abundance - until it does.
How sustainable is the subsidy the chinese government provides? Their playbook is simple: get western companies to set up JV, license/steal IP, build highly subsidised product to drive western incumbents into stagnation or bankruptcy.
I'm more concern with the AI part of the race, since at one point the cars will be AIs on wheel that could be accessed remoty and hacked/disabled/used as weapons or coopted for decentralized computing projects (at night?)
Nah. No IP court on earth has found China guilty of stealing significant IP, ever.
In fact, hardly any IP cases have been filed against China. Of the world's Top 20 scientists whose papers have been withdrawn for dishonesty, only one is Chinese, from Taiwan.
In real life, China leads the world in all fields of scientific research, in the top 1% of STEM papers, in patents, and in technology implementation (Tibet has much better 5G coverage than California), and owns 65% of the IP on 21st century technologies.
When I lived in the former Soviet block we used to have a nice propaganda machine churning similar facts. We also had parts of the capital that were to "showcase" our great progress.
I even met an older American from Texas who wanted to invest in our fledging biotech industry based on a day trip he took around our "factories"...
When the tide recedes we'll see who was swimming naked... My bet is it will be a Chinese grad student with parents that robbed billions so they can buy his way into a prestigious US university and get themselves a Singapore citizenship as well.
Is there really not competition on quality? My anecdotal observation is that lots of China-made products I've bought have deteriorated (e.g. light-bulbs) too fast. So, I've flipped back to lots of domestic products that so far hold up better. Would that same dynamic not play out in China-made vehicles? Maybe it already is? Just curious if my observations match a broader reality.
Time to rethink transport completely. The motor vehicle is an abomination. The winner will be the country that reinvents automotive or semi-automotive transportation
To quote the piece “Tens of thousands of jobs would disappear. Tax revenues would dive. We would forget how to make thing, even the most basic things. The West would be extremely vulnerable. “ Not so. People will only buy Chinese made vehicles if they judge them to be good value. Let’s take the buyer who buys on price alone. If he saves $5,000 by buying a Chinese car, that gives him $5,000 to spend on something else, likely produced locally, such as yoga classes, restaurant meals, sport tickets etc. So he gets all those extra things and the government gets the tax revenue from the businesses providing those services and more people are employed teaching yoga and as chefs - a win win win. Remember there are millions more people consuming cars than there are making them, so the benefits are multiplied millions of times. Chinese workers are growing more expensive. So many industries are leaving China for places like India, Vietnam and Bangladesh. The same thing will happen with car manufacture.
Just as an example in Germany the red tape was massive against Tesla when trying to build a plant. When local leftist protesters cut the power supply to the plant the government did basically nothing. Maybe we deserve to suffer again? Maybe every generation has to learn the hard way. When a 17 year old feels she has the right to rule the world from her beliefs. Hard working adults need to step up, not treat her like a Messia..
Putting Greed and Money before national pride obliterates the meaning of nation.
And there it is. The “why” is observable and the outcome inevitable.
“We are making record margins on those Chevy exports to Mexico,” one GM executive told me.”
Good article. Paints a comprehensive and fact based picture of the auto industry’s shifting center of gravity to China in honest terms, which few in the West dare to publicly voice.
During the ICE age, the shift to Japanese and Korean auto manufacturers was tectonic but gradual over several decades. But the disruptive shift this time will be much much faster, due to the combination of Electric Mobility AND AI. Most ppl also don’t understand or believe AI will descend like a storm before it brings forth a rainbow of abundance - until it does.
How sustainable is the subsidy the chinese government provides? Their playbook is simple: get western companies to set up JV, license/steal IP, build highly subsidised product to drive western incumbents into stagnation or bankruptcy.
I'm more concern with the AI part of the race, since at one point the cars will be AIs on wheel that could be accessed remoty and hacked/disabled/used as weapons or coopted for decentralized computing projects (at night?)
Nah. No IP court on earth has found China guilty of stealing significant IP, ever.
In fact, hardly any IP cases have been filed against China. Of the world's Top 20 scientists whose papers have been withdrawn for dishonesty, only one is Chinese, from Taiwan.
In real life, China leads the world in all fields of scientific research, in the top 1% of STEM papers, in patents, and in technology implementation (Tibet has much better 5G coverage than California), and owns 65% of the IP on 21st century technologies.
When I lived in the former Soviet block we used to have a nice propaganda machine churning similar facts. We also had parts of the capital that were to "showcase" our great progress.
I even met an older American from Texas who wanted to invest in our fledging biotech industry based on a day trip he took around our "factories"...
When the tide recedes we'll see who was swimming naked... My bet is it will be a Chinese grad student with parents that robbed billions so they can buy his way into a prestigious US university and get themselves a Singapore citizenship as well.
Is there really not competition on quality? My anecdotal observation is that lots of China-made products I've bought have deteriorated (e.g. light-bulbs) too fast. So, I've flipped back to lots of domestic products that so far hold up better. Would that same dynamic not play out in China-made vehicles? Maybe it already is? Just curious if my observations match a broader reality.
If you think about it he have a point cause most people I see now drive more China and Japanese cars now.
Perhaps Tesla will become the saviour of the west as it builds factories around the world and focuses on vertical integration?
Time to rethink transport completely. The motor vehicle is an abomination. The winner will be the country that reinvents automotive or semi-automotive transportation
To quote the piece “Tens of thousands of jobs would disappear. Tax revenues would dive. We would forget how to make thing, even the most basic things. The West would be extremely vulnerable. “ Not so. People will only buy Chinese made vehicles if they judge them to be good value. Let’s take the buyer who buys on price alone. If he saves $5,000 by buying a Chinese car, that gives him $5,000 to spend on something else, likely produced locally, such as yoga classes, restaurant meals, sport tickets etc. So he gets all those extra things and the government gets the tax revenue from the businesses providing those services and more people are employed teaching yoga and as chefs - a win win win. Remember there are millions more people consuming cars than there are making them, so the benefits are multiplied millions of times. Chinese workers are growing more expensive. So many industries are leaving China for places like India, Vietnam and Bangladesh. The same thing will happen with car manufacture.
So it’s like the whole argument that China has lost its place as a manufacturing hub is invalid.
Just as an example in Germany the red tape was massive against Tesla when trying to build a plant. When local leftist protesters cut the power supply to the plant the government did basically nothing. Maybe we deserve to suffer again? Maybe every generation has to learn the hard way. When a 17 year old feels she has the right to rule the world from her beliefs. Hard working adults need to step up, not treat her like a Messia..